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Mon the thao vua khong chi hap dan boi nhung ban thang man nhan ma con boi vo van lua chon dat cuoc phong phu. Trong so do, keo goc (phat goc) dang dan tro thanh mot lua chon duoc nhieu nguoi choi chuyen nghiep san don. Khac voi keo Chau A hay Tai Xiu ban thang, keo goc doi hoi mot goc nhin phan tich hoan toan khac biet. Lam the nao de ban co the "bat keo goc" chinh xac va gia tang co hoi chien thang tren cac nen tang nhu bong da so? Bai viet nay se di sau vao nhung chien luoc phan tich cot loi giup ban lam chu loai keo day tiem nang nay.
Hieu Ro Ban Chat: Keo Goc Khong Chi La May Man
Nhieu nguoi moi choi thuong nghi rang so luong phat goc hoan toan ngau nhien. Tuy nhien, trong the gioi ca cuoc the thao, moi chi so deu co quy luat. Keo goc (Corner Bet) la viec du doan tong so pha phat goc se dien ra trong suot 90 phut thi dau (hoac theo hiep dau) se cao hon hay thap hon mot con so nha cai dua ra (Tai/Xiu), hoac du doan doi nao se co nhieu goc hon (keo chap goc).
De thanh cong, chung ta can loai bo yeu to may rui va tap trung vao cac yeu to co the do luong duoc. Dieu nay bat buoc nguoi choi phai trang bi mot bo cong cu phan tich sac ben, vuot qua viec chi nhin vao ty le thang thua chung cuoc.
Yeu To So 1: Phong Cach Choi Cua Hai Doi Bong
Day la yeu to quan trong nhat quyet dinh tan suat phat goc. Hai doi bong co loi choi khac nhau se tao ra so luong goc rat khac nhau.
Doi bong choi tan cong bien va tat canh: Nhung doi bong thuong xuyen su dung chien thuat dua bong xuong sat duong bien ngang roi thuc hien cac qua tat som (cross) thuong tao ra nhieu phat goc. Hang phong ngu doi phuong buoc phai pha bong chiu phat goc thay vi de tien dao doi phuong co co hoi dut diem. Hay tim kiem nhung doi co cau thu chay canh toc do cao hoac cac hau ve bien thuong xuyen dang cao.
Doi bong tan cong trung lo: Nguoc lai, nhung doi tap trung vao cac pha phoi hop trung lo, choc khe hoac su dung cac tien dao cam manh me o trung tam se co xu huong tao ra it goc hon, vi cac cu sut thuong di thang ve phia khung thanh hoac bi chan truc dien.
Doi bong co kha nang phong ngu lui sau (Dung xe buyt): Khi mot doi chu dong lui sau phong ngu va bi ep san lien tuc, ho se co xu huong pha bong ra bien hoac chiu phat goc nhieu hon de giai toa ap luc. Neu doi cua tren duoc danh gia manh hon han va co xu huong don ep, keo Tai goc se tro nen sang sua.
Yeu To So 2: Tam Quan Trong Cua Tran Dau va Thoi Tiet
Muc do quan trong cua tran dau anh huong truc tiep den tam ly thi dau va su than trong cua cau thu, tu do tac dong den so luong goc.
Tran dau loai truc tiep hoac Chung ket: Trong cac tran dau ma mot ban thang co the thay doi tat ca, cac doi thuong choi than trong hon trong hiep mot, dan den viec co it phat goc hon. Khi ty so dang hoa vao nhung phut cuoi, su non nong co the day cuong do len cao, tao ra cac pha bong voi vang dan den phat goc.
Dieu kien thoi tiet: Mua lon, gio manh hoac san tron truot co the khien cac duong chuyen de di sai muc tieu hon, hoac cac cu sut bi truot chan. Dieu nay lam tang kha nang bong bi pha ra ngoai duong bien cuoi san, truc tiep lam tang so luong phat goc.
Yeu To So 3: Phan Tich Keo Chap Goc va Ty Le Cuoc
Khi dat cuoc keo goc tai Bongdaso, ban khong chi nhin vao tong so goc (Tai/Xiu) ma con phai xem xet keo chap goc (vi du: Doi A chap Doi B 1.5 goc).
Neu doi A duoc danh gia cao hon nhieu va co xu huong don ep doi thu yeu hon, viec ho chap 1.5 hoac 2 goc la hoan toan hop ly. Ban can phan tich xem lieu suc ep tan cong cua doi manh co du de tao ra su chenh lech do hay khong. Doi khi, doi yeu hon du bi ep nhung van co nhung pha phan cong nhanh va co goc, lam giam bot so luong goc ma doi manh co the tao ra.
Luon so sanh ty le cuoc (Odds). Neu ty le Tai goc (vi du: Tai 9.5) co muc an qua thap, co the nha cai da danh gia qua cao kha nang xuat hien goc. Hay tim kiem nhung tran dau co ty le cuoc can bang nhung phan tich cua ban lai nghieng ve huong Tai hoac Xiu manh me.
Toi Uu Hoa Chien Luoc: Su Dung Du Lieu Lich Su
Mot cong cu khong the thieu khi soi keo goc la thong ke lich su doi dau va phong do gan day.
- Thong ke Goc trung binh moi tran: Xem xet trung binh so goc ma moi doi tao ra va phai chiu trong 5-10 tran gan nhat.
- Doi dau truc tiep: Cac tran derby hoac cac cap dau co tinh chat "khac khau" thuong co xu huong mau lua hon, dan den nhieu tinh huong va cham va phat goc hon, bat ke phong do hien tai cua ho ra sao.
- Su thay doi chien thuat: Neu mot huan luyen vien moi thay doi loi choi tu phong ngu phan cong sang tan cong tong luc, thong ke cu cua ho co the khong con chinh xac. Can cap nhat thong tin ve doi hinh ra san va y do chien thuat truoc tran dau.
Ket Luan
Keo goc Bongdaso la mot thi truong hap dan danh cho nhung nguoi choi chiu kho phan tich. No doi hoi su kien nhan va kha nang doc vi loi choi cua cac doi bong chu khong chi dua vao ten tuoi hay ty le cuoc ban thang. Bang cach chu trong vao phong cach tan cong bien, ap luc phong ngu va du lieu thong ke chi tiet, ban hoan toan co the bien viec du doan phat goc thanh mot nguon loi nhuan on dinh va thu vi trong hanh trinh ca cuoc bong da cua minh. Hay nho, soi keo goc la nghe thuat quan sat chi tiet! Xem them: Ket qua bong da, Nhung duong link huu ich:
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